Why it matters:
- With Thanksgiving falling on November 28 — five days later than last year — retailers are placing an emphasis on “Early Black Friday” sales.
- Consumers expect to spend more this holiday season — sales are projected to grow between 2.5% and 3.5%, according to the National Retail Federation — but they will also eschew brand loyalty to nab better prices and early deals, according to Deloitte Research.
- This season, experiential gifts, such as tickets to a show or museum subscriptions, are poised to outpace traditional presents, just as retailers from Macys to Walmart tap into the success of local outdoor holiday markets, pop culture, and nostalgia to drive seasonal sales.
Predictions for consumer spending in the current holiday shopping season and beyond come with a long list of caveats as consumers and retailers alike navigate an economy in transition and other factors.
In addition to being a presidential election year, one of the most significant aspects of this holiday season is the relatively late occurrence of Thanksgiving, which compresses the window between that holiday and Christmas. With Black Friday coming relatively late, the trend toward launching “Early Black Friday” sales has been more pronounced than ever this season.
Inflation and an uncertain economic outlook also appear to be casting a cloud over this year’s kickoff to the holiday shopping season. Despite the easing of price pressures across many product categories during the past year, consumers continue to struggle with high costs for basic expenses such as housing and health care.
In response, some retailers are incorporating pop culture and nostalgia into their marketing, perhaps seeking to provide a sense of comfort and well-being at time when anxieties are running high. Retailers are also seeking to differentiate themselves with exclusive products and in-store experiences.
Consumers, meanwhile, have continued to gravitate toward giving experiential holiday presents, such as spa visits or concert tickets, for example.
What follows are some of the key trends to watch this Black Friday/Cyber Monday and beyond:
Early shopping trend reinforced by late Thanksgiving
With Thanksgiving falling on November 28 this year, versus on November 23 a year ago, consumers have less than a month to complete their shopping if they wait until Black Friday, and retailers are especially eager to attract early deal-seekers.
Target is among the plethora of retailers seeking to capture a share of this year’s pre-Thanksgiving shoppers. The company staged an early Black Friday sale November 7 to 9, with promotions that included up to 50% off small appliances, up to 40% off technology devices, and discounts of up to 30% on apparel, toys, and holiday trees and lights. In addition, the retailer on November 3 launched a series of weeklong deals on specific items.
Other retailers rolling out early deals this year included Walmart, Amazon, Best Buy, and others, with deals on TVs, high-tech watches, and other relatively big-ticket items.
Whether or not consumers are actually shifting their spending patterns remains to be seen, however. Despite the early start, most consumers (62%) anticipate finishing their shopping in December, according to the National Retail Federation, which predicts an overall holiday spending increase this year of between 2.5% and 3.5% compared with a year ago.
Research from Deloitte found that the bulk of holiday shopping was expected to occur in late November, despite significantly stronger consumer interest in October shopping. Sixty-eight percent of consumers said they expected to shop during Thanksgiving week, up slightly from 66% last year. That includes 47% who said they planned to shop on Black Friday (versus 31% last year); 20% who said they planned to shop on Small Business Saturday (up from 14% a year ago); and 43% who said they planned to shop on Cyber Monday (versus 31% in 2023).
[Read: 5 Marketing Insights to Spur Sales This Holiday Season]
Blending deals with shopping convenience
The early hunt for deals is also emblematic of the economic pressure that many consumers say they are feeling after an extended period of price inflation on many basic necessities.
The Deloitte report found that although consumers were optimistic about the economy, they were still expected to be cautious in their spending this year. Most income groups said they plan to spend more this year than in 2023, but many consumers are also expected to try to save money by shifting to more affordable brands if their preferred brand is too expensive, or by shopping at more affordable retailers if their preferred retailer is too expensive.
Low-priced retailers such as Dollar General are seeking to capitalize on these shifts, by providing both value and convenience. This year the retailer rolled out its first-ever printed holiday toy guide, with nearly every toy — including many from popular national brands — priced under $20 and most priced under $10. The printed toy guide follows the release of a digital version in mid-October, which included videos and shoppable links with a ship-to-home option. The retailer also said it would launch a digital holiday guide featuring beauty and personal care, pet, electronics, home, and apparel gifts.
Deloitte predicted that online shopping would increase 7% to 9% over year-ago levels, driven in part by consumers seeking the best deals, but also by the convenience of shopping from the home or office. Sixty percent of shoppers said they believed they were more likely to find fair prices online, compared with 32% who said they saw in-store as a better opportunity for finding fair prices. In addition, online shopping was seen as providing significant advantages in terms of inspiration, product availability, product variety, and time savings.
[Read: 5 Retail Trends to Tap Into on Small Business Saturday]
Exclusives, in-store experiences drive excitement
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), meanwhile, issued an optimistic outlook for in-store shopping this season, predicting that consumers would scour physical stores for exclusive offers and discounts. In its 2024 Holiday Shopping Intentions Survey, the ICSC found that 68% of consumers agree that searching for discounts or exclusive offers will lead them to make more trips to physical stores, an increase of seven percentage points over last year.
Ninety-two percent of shoppers will spend in a physical store, the ICSC research found, noting that brick-and-mortar retail venues and online shopping will complement each other as nearly all in-store shoppers also said they plan to buy online from the same retailer’s website.
Macy’s is playing up its exclusive gift assortments and store experiences, which include events, its iconic window displays, and more. This year at the retailer’s flagship Herald Square location in New York City, Macy’s is for the first time hosting a holiday market assembled by Urbanspace, the group that has created some of the city’s most popular holiday markets in Union Square, Columbus Circle, and Bryant Park.
The market, dubbed Macy’s Holiday Square, will feature an assortment of products, holiday gifts, and foods and beverages from more than 30 local businesses. Products include personalized ornaments, jewelry, handmade stationery, candles, decorative accessories, and more. The Holiday Market will be located inside the Macy’s Herald Square location, with most of the booths on the mezzanine level and others scattered throughout the store, a Macy’s spokesperson told CO—. More booths will pop up outside the store beginning on December 6, the spokesperson said.
[For more content on preparing your business for the holiday season, check out our guide, here.]
Pop culture, nostalgia power feel-good holiday ad campaigns
The year-end holidays always lend themselves to nostalgic tie-ins, and many of this year’s marketing campaigns rely on tried-and-true seasonal messages that incorporate familiar pop-culture references from years past. The messages seek to engender a feeling of well-being amid anxious times, which have included the divisive presidential election campaign, economic uncertainty, and ongoing unrest around the world.
Walmart, for example, kicked off its holiday advertising campaign with a 30-second TV spot that features feel-good clips from longtime TV show hits including “Gilmore Girls,” “The Simpsons,” “SpongeBob SquarePants,” and “National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation.”
JCPenney, meanwhile, has been airing a celebrity-filled campaign featuring former basketball star Shaquille O’Neal, TV personality and entrepreneur Martha Stewart, actress Gabrielle Union, country singer Walker Hayes, and cooking content creator Jenny Martinez. The 16-week “Really Big Deal” campaign reveals a new set of promotions on fashion, home goods, and beauty care products each week.
Spending on experiences outpaces traditional presents
The Deloitte research highlights the growing appeal of creating holiday experiences meant to be shared among friends and family. This is a holiday spending category that has been growing faster than buying traditional gifts, according to Deloitte.
Spending on experiences is expected to increase 16% this year, the research found, and consumers also said they plan to spend 9% more this year on non-gift purchases such as holiday apparel and décor. After spending on experiences plunged in 2020 because of the pandemic, the category has rebounded to surpass pre-pandemic levels and has been growing at a faster pace than spending on retail product categories, according to Deloitte.
“As consumers look to travel, host events at home, or participate in holiday concerts and activities, it may be an important time for retailers to take stock of shifting priorities,” the report concludes.
In addition to increasing their participation in experiences, consumers are also giving experiential gifts to others, according to research from Circana. The company’s 2024 U.S. Holiday Purchase Intentions report found that 55% of consumers plan to purchase an experiential or intangible gift this holiday season, up 2% over last year. Food and beverage experiences rank as the top gift in this category, cited by 44% of those buying experiential gifts, followed by tickets to an event or performance, cited by 27%.
Experiential gifts showing an increase from the year-ago survey include interactive experiences, adventure experiences, and educational/enrichment experiences, the survey found.
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