Why it matters:
- Use of GLP-1 weight loss drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro, and Zepbound have skyrocketed in the last several years, with some 15.5 million people, or 6% of adults in the U.S., saying they’ve tried them.
- Goldman Sachs analysts estimate the number of people in the U.S. taking GLP-1s could grow from today’s 2 million to 15 million in 2030.
- Companies like Noom and Nestlé have created products to cater to the medication users’ unique needs with products and services like smaller portion-sized meals and muscle-building fitness programs, while analysts anticipate brands focused solely on processed foods, for example, could see challenges ahead.
Since the number of people taking Ozempic and other GLP-1 weight-loss medications such as Wegovy, Mounjaro, and Zepbound started to spike two years ago given their effectiveness, mentions of the prescription drugs are now everywhere – from TikTok videos to companies’ earnings calls.
Around 15.5 million people, or 6% of adults in the U.S., say they’ve tried GPL-1 weight loss drugs, according to a Gallup poll. The drugs work by targeting brain pathways so people don’t crave food as much and feel less hungry. Nearly half of adults express interest in taking the medication, and as the number of users continues to climb, businesses from food to fitness brands are starting to shift strategies to cater to their unique needs.
Weight loss platform Noom, for example, is leaning into the trend, having recently launched a Wellness Community and Habit Tracker specifically tailored to people taking GLP-1s. Big brands are paying close attention, too, launching new products and services specifically for GLP-1 users.
“The opportunity for a company like Noom is to be the companion on the weight loss journey, and on the health journey more generally,” Noom CEO Geoff Cook told CO—. “All things GLP-1” are currently a priority area for both Noom’s engineering team and its marketing budget.
The number of people in the U.S. taking these drugs could grow from around 2 million today to 15 million in 2030, Goldman Sachs analyst Chris Shibutani writes in a report, increasing the size of the GLP-1 market from $10 billion to $100 billion in 2030. Some experts believe changes in peoples’ eating habits, nutritional needs, and lifestyle prompted by the drugs may usher in a sea change in the health and wellness, food, and fitness industries, especially, with brands that adapt and innovate coming out on top.
Noom is creating a community of GLP-1 users, encouraging them to adopt healthy habits while taking the medications
GLP-1 medications are considered a “forever drug,” meaning if people don’t take them for the rest of their lives, the benefits stop. Challenges to consumer adoption include high costs, drug shortages, and for some, symptoms like nausea.
Some people who lose weight on the drugs find themselves regaining it if they don’t make simultaneous lifestyle changes as they stop. That’s where Noom is stepping in. The company launched its GLP-1 Companion in December to create a community of people taking the medications and help them retain muscle mass and build healthy eating habits.
As studies show that consuming more protein can help reduce body weight, Noom’s GLP-1 Companion has protein intake and resistance training at its core. Noom has gradually added new features, including Muscle Defense, a curated fitness program for people on GLP-1 medications, which was added in May, and an AI function that analyzes snapshots of meals and creates a food log. Noom started offering that tool to consumers who don’t take weight loss drugs, too, benefitting all customers, the company said.
“The opportunity for a company like Noom is to be the companion on the weight loss journey, and on the health journey more generally,” Noom CEO Geoff Cook told CO—. “All things GLP-1” are currently a priority area for both Noom’s engineering team and its marketing budget.
Through Noom Med, a medical weight management program Noom launched in 2023, qualified patients can access a prescription to GLP-1 drugs. Noom this year partnered with healthcare company Accolade to provide evidence-based obesity care. Other consumers come to Noom through their primary care providers, who recommend it as a companion tool to the drugs. “We see doctors as allies,” Cook said.
From customers, Noom has seen increased interest in help with both tapering usage or stopping the drugs, said Cook, and the company is working on a tool to help with this. Noom sells its products to employers and health plans, too, and has noticed an uptick in employees asking their employer to cover the medications. If more companies opt to support their employees taking the drugs, that’s another area of opportunity for Noom, the company said.
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Big brands like Nestlé create new food products that cater to people who take weight loss drugs
Other companies have begun to shift strategies, too, launching products to support people on the weight loss drugs, and are anticipating what may one day be an even greater demand for healthier foods, exercise equipment, and smaller clothing sizes as people slim down and stick to healthier habits.
WW International, formerly Weight Watchers, launched a new membership plan last December for members taking GLP-1 drugs, the WeightWatchers GLP-1 Program.
“What we’ve seen is that people taking GLP-1 medications need help with a different set of behavioral challenges in comparison to people not on these medications,” said WeightWatchers Chief Scientific Officer Gary Foster in a statement. “For example, in the context of a reduced appetite, large weight losses, and a significant loss in muscle, it is important to help people focus on dietary protein and activity to minimize the loss of muscle mass.”
Nestlé this year introduced a line of high-protein frozen food products called Vital Pursuit, also designed to be a companion for GLP-1 weight loss medication users and other consumers focused on weight management.
The products are high in protein and fiber, contain essential nutrients, and they are “portion-aligned” to a weight loss medication user's appetite, the company said in a statement.
“As we continue to see an increased desire for mindful eating, there is an opportunity to drive growth and support consumers in the category by infusing new high-quality and convenient weight management options,” a Nestlé spokesperson told CO—.
Abbott Nutrition announced the launch of Protality, a line of protein shakes for those taking weight loss drugs, while Danone noted in its third quarter earnings call that it believes the widespread use of GLP-1 drugs will ultimately benefit its business.
Analysts anticipate benefits for companies that focus on fresh and high-protein foods to activewear
Analysts at Coresight Research believe companies that prioritize high-protein, low-sugar, and energy-boosting products like protein powders and nutrition bars, such as BellRing, have the most to gain. On the other hand, those that skew toward candies, salty snacks, soda, and other processed foods could face challenges.
High-calorie and high-carbohydrate alcoholic drinks that can make people feel fuller, like beer and hard cider, could see a dip in sales, too, forcing manufacturers to innovate with new products and marketing campaigns. GLP-1 drugs may also accelerate the shift away from packaged food products toward fresh and frozen, the report said.
A Morgan Stanley survey showed that 65% of obesity drug users consumed fewer sugary carbonated drinks and 62% were drinking less alcohol.
Analysts say diversifying is key. Companies like Nestlé, with its diverse food portfolio of nutrition products and plant-based foods, along with categories like candy, may have greater potential resilience to the impact of GLP-1 medications.
In addition to food and beverage companies, the apparel industry could also see a notable impact.
Coresight analysts see a strong demand emerging for activewear and athleisure as users of the weight loss medications embrace exercising more, while the plus-size category – which in recent years has benefitted from the body positivity movement – could see a decrease in demand. This shift would benefit sports and athletic apparel brands and retailers like Lululemon and Nike.
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To maximize GLP-1-related opportunities, brands must be ready to ‘reformulate, resize, and rethink their products to fit changing consumer demand’
It’s still unclear to what extend GLP-1 drugs will impact brands. At around $1,000 a month without insurance, prices are cost prohibitive for many, and insurance coverage is limited.
These and other factors may limit the size of the GLP-1 market in the near-to-medium term, Shibutani said in the Goldman Sachs report.
But, to be best positioned to reap benefits from opportunities as they arise, brands need to prepare today for a potential notable shift in consumers’ shopping habits by following the trend and making adjustments to offerings as needed, analysts said.
Businesses should work to understand the unique needs of GLP-1 drug users, according to Coresight analysts. Companies could also implement technologies that offer consumers personalized recommendations based on body changes to create a unique shopping experience that consumers want to return to.
Food companies, in particular, could launch low-calorie, protein-packed versions of their standard products, sell products in smaller portion sizes, and be even more transparent about their ingredients, according to Coresight Research analyst Sujeet Naik.
“We expect forward-thinking brands to reformulate, resize and rethink their products to fit changing consumer demand,” according to Coresight analysts.
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