Highlights
Energy security risks fell for the sixth year in a row in 2017: After achieving a record high risk score in 2011, the total U.S. energy security risk score fell for the sixth consecutive year in 2017—the longest streak of annual declines in the Index database—dropping to 77.5, its lowest level since 1995.
Total risk score has plunged 24 points since the 2011 record-high score: In the six years since the U.S. risk score peaked in 2011, it has tumbled 24.1 points, a rapid rate of decline that is unprecedented. By comparison, it took twice as many years—from 1980 to 1992— for the risk score to fall 25 points to the historic low of 75.1. Barring unforeseen events, even further declines are anticipated.
Natural gas import risk fall to “0”: Natural gas imports risks fell to zero on the back of surging domestic production that in 2017 made the United States a net exporter of natural gas for the first time since 1957.
U.S. energy security risk score for 2018 is expected to achieve a record low: The outlook suggests that the United States will have a record low risk score (between 74 and 75 points) in 2018 as the impact of the large crude oil price spike in 2015 dissipates, price volatility returns to a low level, and current trends in domestic energy production and energy efficiency proceed as expected.
Risks expected to stay very low out to 2040: Based on EIA’s AEO2018, we expect an average U.S. risk score of 74.4 from 2018 to 2040, ranging from 75.4 to 74 (which would be a new record low). There is nothing comparable to such prolonged period of risk scores below 80 points in the Index database going back to 1970. As we know from history, however, unexpected events are almost certain to occur that will impact future risk scores.
The forecast suggests three additional metric risks scores are expected fall to “0”: In addition to the metric for natural gas import risk, which reached a score of zero in 2017, the risk scores for three other import-related metric s also should reach zero sometime before 2030: petroleum import risk (in 2018); oil and natural gas import expenditures (in 2025); and oil and natural gas import expenditures per GDP (in 2025).
