Introduction
As companies begin to invest heavily in the energy transition, how can we best address the waste problem that will be created by the adoption of clean energy technologies?
The energy transition will lead to a rapid deployment of solar and wind technology over the next 25 years, creating significant demand for materials like iron and steel, rare earth metals, and silicon.
By 2040, existing solar and wind plants will begin decommissioning, creating a potentially significant waste stream and raising a number of questions that this study seeks to address:
- What types of materials are needed for the energy transition? Where are they currently sourced?
- What will happen to the key materials embedded in these plants at end of life? Can they be recycled in the U.S. and re-used in solar and wind plants or for other uses?
- How do we make renewable energy generation a more circular economy?
This study relies on a forecast of renewable capacity and estimates of materials required per plant to calculate the quantity of materials needed to make the energy transition a reality. A forecast of solar and wind plant retirements is used to identify when end of life disposal and recycling will be required.
The following is an excerpt of a broader report on circularity in the renewable power sector:
Gap Analysis: Rare Earth Metals
Rare earth recycling is technologically difficult and still in its infancy so there is not currently sufficient capacity to recycle these materials at scale.
Little to no rare earth metals are currently recycled, so virtually all the demand is expected to be satisfied by virgin materials. Beginning in 2042, the wind sector will decommission more rare earth magnets than it installs. This presents a great opportunity.
In 2050, the U.S. is projected to decommission over 1,300 combined metric tons of neodymium and praseodymium, two of the most common rare earth metals used in land-based and offshore wind technology. For comparison, U.S. mines produced just 43,000 tons of rare earth metals in 2021, but there are many competing uses for these materials in medical devices, computer components, and electric vehicle motors.
There is some small-scale recycling capacity available today. One company in San Marcos, Texas designs and builds programs to collect rare earth magnets from MRIs, electric motors, hard drives, and electric vehicles. The DOE has also provided funding to two companies in Colorado and Iowa to develop non-toxic rare earth element recycling techniques.
Conclusions and Implications of the Renewable Sector Analysis
While circularity is currently achievable for some materials, recycling methods for others are in their infancy. Further research and funding is required to fully address the future environmental challenge of solar and wind waste.
Circularity Can Provide Diverse Benefits
Achieving circularity in renewables would generate meaningful environmental and economic benefits.
- Improving circularity in this sector will reduce U.S. dependence on foreign supply chains and decrease GHG emissions associated with the production and transport of virgin materials.
- The development of domestic recycling capability will support investment in U.S. industries and may result in significant economic benefits.
Progress Toward Circularity Varies
For some materials, a degree of circularity has already been achieved but for others, much work remains to be done.
- The U.S. is a leader in using scrap iron and steel to create new products, incorporating recycled materials at a rate nearly double the global average.
- The U.S. produces almost none of the silicon cells needed for crystalline silicon solar panels and lacks an economic incentive and technology for recycling them.
- Rare earth metals show a promising path forward – some recycling capability is already developing and funding is being directed towards it.
A Holistic View is Needed
Due to the rapid growth projected in renewable deployment, recycled materials will need to come from other sources.
- Nearly all the growth in the renewable sector is expected over the coming 10-20 years. In this period, there will be insufficient recyclable material available from retirements of wind and solar.
- For many metals, recycled materials could be sourced from other sectors. Iron and steel, for example, could be recycled from retiring fossil fuel plants.
- In the short term, however, sources of recyclable silicon and rare earth metals are limited relative to the projected demand from new wind and solar plants.
