Small Business Outlook: Small Businesses Remain Resilient, Expect Sales and Revenue to Improve

More small business owners are focused on measurable positive impacts from the use of artificial intelligence (AI) as anxiety over inflation continues.

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New Small Business Data

Fiserv October Small Business Index (November 4, 2026)

Insight Summary: Increased spending bodes well for small retailers entering into Q4 and the holiday shopping season. Spending at small restaurants ticked downward compared to last year.

• Month-over-month sales at small businesses rose in October (+0.3%) and year-over-year sales continued upward (+2.3% compared to October 2025).
• Average checkout totals rose 3.5% compared to a year ago, continuing the trend of higher spending per visit rather than increased customer traffic.

Chase for Business October Small Business Pulse (October 29, 2026)

Insight Summary: Data from September show small business profitability remains elevated for 2026 despite a 2-month dip.

• Hiring at small businesses ticked up slightly to 19% growth year-over-year (1 point higher than June-August).
• Profitability for small businesses dipped for the 2nd month in a row, but remains elevated since the start of 2026, indicating continued resilience.
• 70% of small businesses are at least moderately prepared to prevent and recover from a cyberattack. 10% said that a major cyber incident would be severely disruptive or could threaten the survival of their business.

WSJ/Vistage Small Business Small Business CEO Confidence Index (October 27, 2026)

Insight Summary: Small business confidence rebounded after 2-months of decline, even as price pressures increase on Main Street.

• 16% of small business owners say the economy has improved compared to a year ago (4 points better than September) and 52% say the economy has gotten worse (2 points worse than September).
• 21% of small business owners believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months (3 points better than September) and 33% believe the economy will worsen (3 points better than September).
• 58% of small businesses plan on increasing employees in the next 12-months (7 points higher than September) and 6% plan on decreasing employees (4 points better than September).
• 38% of small businesses are expecting to increase fixed investments (3 points higher than September).
• 70% of small businesses expect increased revenues in the next 12 months (9 points better than September) and 8% believe revenues will decrease (1 point better than September).
• 56% of small business owners believe profitability will increase in the next 12 months (11 points better than September) and 12% believe that profitability will decrease (4 points better than September).

2026 OnDeck + Ocrolus Small Business Q3 Cash Flow Trend Report (October 22, 2026)

Insight Summary: Small business owners’ enthusiasm for growth waned in Q3 and their anxiety rose about inflation. Main Street employers’ confidence in their own cash flow remains high.

• 93% of small businesses anticipate moderate to significant growth over the next year (no change from the last 2 quarters) and 26.9% anticipate significant growth (3.5% lower than last quarter).
• 36% of small business owners cited inflation as their highest concern in Q3 (2 points higher than last quarter) and 28% of small business owners cited cash flow as their highest concern (2 points lower than last quarter).
• 61% of small business owners have incorporated artificial intelligence (AI) into their operations and 90% of them report a measurable positive impact from using AI.
• 33% of small business owners expect to increase their investment in AI and 62% expect to maintain their current level of investment in AI.
• 41% of small business owners report having cash available to cover 30-60 days of operating expenses and 29% report having enough cash to cover less than 30 days of operating expenses.

Bank of America Institute Small Business Checkpoint (October 15, 2026)

Insight Summary: Smaller firms outpaced their larger counterparts in profitability for two straight quarters (Q2 and Q3).

• Small businesses with under $5 million in annual revenue experienced higher profitability growth in Q2 and Q3 than small businesses with revenue between $5 million and $50 million (mid sized firms).
• Trucking capacity is tightening due to driver shortages in advance of peak shipping season of late September to early December.
• Logistics spending was 4 times as much for smaller businesses than mid-sized firms during the 3rdQuarter of 2026.
• Logistics and freight payments for small businesses rose 12.7% in September compared to a year ago. The payments for mid-sized firms rose 3.2% compared to a year ago.

Impact of Technology on U.S. Small Business (5th Annual) (October 2, 2026)

Insight Summary: 2026 is the year of small business AI use and the technology is proving to be a catalyst for growth.

• Nearly 100% of small businesses use at least one technology platform and 41% use 6+ platforms (9 point increase since 2025 and nearly triple the utilization of 6+ platforms since 2022).
• 66% of small businesses use artificial intelligence (AI) (8 point increase since 2025 and nearly triple the usage since 2023).
• Small businesses that use AI are at least 7 points more likely to report sales, profit, and workforce growth than non-AI enabled small businesses.
• 47% of small business owners report that AI use is creating jobs and 6% report that AI is enabling staff reductions.
• 78% of small businesses that use AI report that limiting access to AI would slow growth and 75% report that limiting access to AI would hurt their bottom line.
• 66% of small businesses report that data centers have a positive impact on local economies and 68% believe that data centers have a positive impact on the U.S. economy.
• 95% of small businesses that use AI are working to upskill employees to broaden AI-use, comfort and knowledge. Of those companies 47% are providing on-the-job-training for using AI.

Justworks and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index for Q3 (September 30, 2026)

Insight Summary: Small business owners remain resilient, with elevated confidence in their businesses’ health and cash flow. More small employers are offering benefits to keep their best employees.

• 70% of small businesses are confident in the health of their own business (1 point higher than last quarter) and 72% are comfortable with their current cash flow (2 points higher than last quarter).
• 33% of small business owners are positive about the health of their local economy (no change from last quarter). 36% say their local economy is “about average” (8 points higher than last quarter) and 30% are negative (6 points better than last quarter).
• 27% of small business owners are positive about the nation’s economic health (3 points lower than last quarter). 22% say the national economy is “about average” (5 points higher than last quarter) and 51% are negative (1 point better than last quarter).
• 54% of small business owners rank inflation as their top concern (3 points lower than last quarter and the 19th consecutive quarter where inflation tops the list).
• 38% of small business owners expect to increase investment in their business in the upcoming year (no change from last quarter).
• 62% of small business owners expect to increase revenue in the next year (4 points lower than last quarter).
• 17% of small business owners reported adding staff over this past year (2 points lower than last quarter) and 36% expect to increase staff over the next 12-months (1 point higher than last quarter).
• 46% of small businesses offer health insurance (5 points higher than Q2 2025). 40% offer paid vacation (10 points higher). 31% of small businesses offer dental/vision insurance (10 points higher) and 27% offer retirement plans (5 points higher).

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The U.S. Chamber's SVP of Small Business Policy Tom Sullivan appears regularly on ASBN - America's Small Business Network and hosts a weekly podcast to deliver fresh insights on small business to viewers and listeners nationwide.

Watch Tom Sullivan talk all things small business with Jim Fitzpatrick on ASBN (America's Small Business Network), including the latest news and policy updates for Main Street business owners. New episodes are added every month so that you can watch them anytime.

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About the author

Thomas M. Sullivan

Thomas M. Sullivan is senior vice president of small business policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Working with chambers of commerce and the U.S. Chamber’s nationwide network, Sullivan harnesses the views of small businesses and translates that grassroots power into federal policies that bolster free enterprise and reward entrepreneurship. He runs the U.S.

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