Small Business Outlook: Rising Uncertainty is Causing Concern

Small business owners’ views on the economy sour due to tariff concerns.

The Q1 2025 MetLife and U.S. Chamber Small Business Index is live. Find the latest data on small business confidence, top challenges, and a special section on workforce readiness insights.

Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) reporting requirements suspended: The Treasury Department announced that it will not enforce any penalties or fines associated with the beneficial ownership information reporting rule for U.S. reporting companies under the CTA. Our guide on CTA requirements is here with updates and information.

New Small Business Data

National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) April Jobs Report (May 1, 2025)

Summary: Small business owners curb their hiring enthusiasm because of economic uncertainty. 

• 34% of small businesses reported job openings they could not fill in April (6 points lower than March and lowest percentage in 3 years).
• 56% of small businesses hired or tried to hire in March (3 points higher than March).  Of those hiring, 85% of those hiring reported few or no qualified job applicants (down 2 points from March).
• 13% of small business owners are planning to create new jobs in the next 3-months (1 point higher than March).
• 33% of small businesses raised wages in April  (down 5 points from March) and 17% plan on raising compensation in the next 3 months (down 2 points from March and the lowest percentage in 3 years).
• 29% of small businesses have openings for skilled workers (down 4 points from March) and 13% have openings for unskilled workers (unchanged for past 3 months).
• 57% of small businesses in construction have a job opening they can’t fill (1 point higher than March).

WSJ / Vistage Small Business CEO Confidence Index (April 25, 2025)

Summary: Small business outlook on the economy continues downward slide with a greater percentage of Main Street employers worried about the negative impact of tariffs.

• 14% of small business owners say the economy has improved (7 points lower than March) and 57% say the economy has gotten worse (15 points worse than March and 43 points worse since January).
• 25% of small business owners believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months (2 points lower than March) and 56% believe the economy will worsen (13 points worse than March).
• 36% of small businesses plan on increasing employees this year (12 points lower than March).
• 30% of small businesses are expecting to increase fixed investments in the next 12 months (6 points lower than March).
• 45% of small businesses expect increased revenues in the next 12 months (14 points lower than March) and 27% believe revenues will decrease (13 points worse than March).
• 36% of small business owners believe profitability will increase in the next 12 months (11 points lower than March) and 35% believe that profitability will decrease (13 points power than March).
• 7% of small business owners believe that across-the-board tariffs will have a positive impact on their business (1 point lower than March).  72% believe tariffs will have a negative impact (8 points higher than March).

QuickBooks Small Business Index for Q1 (April 22, 2025)

Summary: Small businesses’ revenue ticked up slightly in Q1 and remains above pre-pandemic levels, but revenues continue to trend downward.

• Revenue at small businesses grew 0.03% in the first quarter of 2025, meaning gains, on average, of $151,110 per business.
• Small businesses in the professional and business services sector realized the greatest gains (3.08%) in Q1, followed by finance and real estate (2.03%) and construction 0.98%).
• Small businesses in the wholesale trade sector took the biggest hit in Q1 (-4.21%), followed by the information sector (-3.87%), retail trade (-2.08%), and agriculture resources & mining (11.52%).
• Small businesses in the Far West realized the best revenue gains in Q1 (1.85%), followed by the Southeast (0.73%), and the Mideast (0.02%).
• Small businesses in the Plains took the biggest hit in Q1 (-3.35%), followed by New England (-1.56%), and the Southwest (-0.95%).

Learn More

2025 Economic Preview: A Year of Productivity-Driven Growth

Read more

SBE Council Small Business Technology Use Survey 2025 (April 8, 2025)

Summary: More and more small business owners are embracing AI adoption.

• 58% of small business owners are actively deploying AI tools in their business.  82% of those who are using AI have adopted the technology in the last 2-years and 35% started using AI in the past year.
• 96% of small business owners who have deployed AI in their businesses intend to continue their investments and 70% plan on increasing their investment in AI.
• The most common small business usage of AI is content writing and creation (43%) followed by image creation and presentations (36%) and e-mail automation (36%).
• 82% of small business owners believe that leadership on AI is essential to the future

Fiserv Small Business Index (April 3, 2025)

Summary: Small business sales were up in March, defying consumer unease.

• Month-over-month sales at small businesses in March rose 1.8% from February and year-over-year sales at small businesses rose 5.5% compared to March 2024.

Small Business Fast Facts

Small Business Data Center

Read more

MetLife & U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index for Q1 (March 26, 2025)

Summary: Confidence of local economy remains steady as uncertainty pushes other small business perceptions downward and plans for growth on Main Street stall.

• 29% of small business owners are positive about the nation’s economic health (3 points lower than last quarter).
• 37% of small business owners are positive about the health of their local economy (1 point lower than last quarter and 1 point lower than this time last year).
• 58% of small business owners rank inflation as their top concern (3 points higher than last quarter and the 13^th consecutive quarter where inflation tops the list).
• 35% of small business owners rank revenue as their biggest challenge (10 points higher than last quarter and highest percentage in 4-years).
• 63% of small businesses are confident in the health of their own business (4 points lower than last quarter) and 66% are comfortable with their current cash flow (6 points lower than last quarter).
• 20% of small businesses increased staff over the past year (2 points lower than last quarter).
• 94% of small business owners say that trade schools or technical colleges do a good job preparing new employees to enter the workforce.  72% say the same for colleges and universities and 51% say that high school does a good job preparing students for jobs.
• 63% of small business owners are more likely to hire an entry-level employee if they have internship or work-study experience.
• 67% of small business owners offer flexible working hours to attract talent and pay transparency ranks second (62%) in offerings by small employers to recruit good workers followed by higher pay (55%), paid sick leave (55%) and employee referrals (50%).

Honoring America's Top Small Businesses

The Results Are In. These Are America's Top 100 Small Businesses

Read more

Looking for More Small Business Insights?

Watch Tom Sullivan talk all things small business with Jim Fitzpatrick on ASBN (America's Small Business Network), including the latest news and policy updates for Main Street business owners. New episodes are added every month so that you can watch them anytime.

About the author

Thomas M. Sullivan

Thomas M. Sullivan is vice president of small business policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Working with chambers of commerce and the U.S. Chamber’s nationwide network, Sullivan harnesses the views of small businesses and translates that grassroots power into federal policies that bolster free enterprise and reward entrepreneurship. He runs the U.S.

Read more