Updated
March 17, 2025
Published
November 25, 2024
Uncertainty is a wet blanket on small business growth and Main Street employers’ concerns with labor quality overtook inflation as the top small business concern for the first time in four years.
Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) reporting requirements suspended: The Treasury Department announced that it will not enforce any penalties or fines associated with the beneficial ownership information reporting rule for U.S. reporting companies under the CTA. Our guide on CTA requirements is here with more updates and information.
Coming Soon! The next quarterly release for the MetLife and U.S. Chamber Small Business Index is on March 26.
This Week's Highlights
- Uncertainty is causing a steep decline in confidence by small business owners and is stalling plans for growth.
- 2/3 small businesses are positive about their 2025 financial outlook and 3/4 of small business owners are counting on Congress to pass a law that will prevent a massive tax hike at the end of this year.
New Small Business Data
National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index (March 11, 2025)
Summary: Small business owners’ downward slide steepens. Labor quality overtakes inflation as top concern.
- 37% of small business owners expect the economy to improve (10 points lower than January).
- 12% of small business owners believe it is a good time to expand their business (5 points lower than January).
- -12% of small business owners reported higher sales in the past 3-months (2 points better than January) and 14% are expecting higher sales (6 points lower than January).
- -1% of small business owners are planning inventory investment in the next 3-months (down 1 point from January).
- 19% of small business owners reported labor quality as their top concern, overtaking inflation’s spot as the top concern for the first time in 4-years.
- 38% of small businesses reported job openings they could not fill (3 points higher than January).
- 33% of small business owners raised compensation in the past 3-months (no change from January) and 18% plan on raising compensation in the next 3-months (down 2 points from January).
- 32% of small businesses raised their prices (10 points higher than January) and 29% are planning on raising prices in the next 3-months (3 points higher than January).
- 58% of small business owners reported capital outlays in the last 6-months (no change from January) and 19% are planning capital purchases in the next 3-months (down 1 point from January).
- -3% of small business owners expect better credit conditions in the next 3-months (1 point better).
- The average rate paid for short maturity loans was 8.8% (down 0.6 (60 basis points)) and 24% of small business owners report borrowing on a regular basis (down 3 points from January).
- 3% of small business owners reported that financing was their top problem (no change from January).
Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Business Voices National Survey (March 6, 2025)
Summary: Small business owners are positive about their finances, but are pausing expansion plans because of inflation.
- 69% of small business owners feel positive about their financial outlook in 2025.
- 46% of small businesses expect to add jobs this year.
- 88% of small business owners believe that lower interest rates will help their business.
- 54% of small businesses believe that the Trump Administration should address inflation, making it the top small business priority.
- 57% of small business owners believe their business is being held back by regulatory red tape.
- 60% of small business owners want Congress to simplify the tax code and 74% want Congress to prevent the 20% deduction that applies to most small businesses from expiring at the end of 2025.
Fiserv Small Business Index (March 3, 2025)
Summary:Growth in spending slowed in February.
- Month-over-month sales at small businesses in February rose 0.1% from January and year-over-year sales at small businesses rose 2.1% compared to February 2024.
WSJ / Vistage Small Business CEO Confidence Index (February 20, 2025)
Summary: Small business owners’ confidence in the economy remains above pre-election levels but 2-month slide dampens Main Street’s outlook.
- 30% of small business owners say the economy has improved (6 points lower than January) and 22% say the economy has gotten worse (6 points worse than January).
- 46% of small business owners believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months (8 points lower than January and 14 points above October’s level) and 32% believe the economy will worsen (18 points worse than January).
- 46% of small businesses plan on increasing employees this year (12 points lower than January) and 8% plan on shrinking their workforce (5 points higher than January).
- 34% of small businesses expect to increase fixed investments in the next year (5 points lower than January).
- 64% of small businesses expect increased revenues in the next 12 months (12 points lower than January) and 54% believe profitability will improve (6 points lower than January).
- 11% of small business owners believe that across-the-board tariffs will have a positive impact on their business (5 points higher than January). 54% believe tariffs will have a negative impact (17 points higher than January).
- 54% of small business owners are not taking any actions in response to tariff policies and 30% are raising prices.
- 56% of small business owners believe tax policies being considered by Congress and the White House will positively impact their business and 13% believe they will have a negative impact.
CNBC | SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey for Q1 2025 (February 18, 2025)
Summary:A growing percentage of small business owners expect inflation to rise, and higher prices are curbing Main Street employers’ appetite to add staff.
- Inflation continues to top the list of concerns by small business owners. 63% believe inflation will continue to rise (5 points higher than last quarter) and 36% of small business owners believe inflation has peaked (4 points lower than last quarter).
- 76% of small business owners rate the economy from fair to excellent and 52% of small business owners expect increased revenue in the next 12 months (wiping out the 11-point gain experienced last quarter).
- 55% of small business owners follow Diversity Equity and Inclusion (DEI) practices, with largest percentage (38%) citing anti-discrimination or harassment policies as examples. Workplace culture was cited as the top benefit (70%) from following DEI practices.
- 28% of small business owners expect to increase staff in the next 12 months (down 8 points from last quarter) and 10% plan on decreasing the number of full-time employees.
- 37% of small business owners expect that changes in tax policy in the next 12 months will have a positive effect on their business (5 points lower than last quarter) and 33% believe changes will have a negative effect (5 points higher than last quarter).
- 24% of small business owners expect that trade policy in the next 12 months will have a positive impact on their business, compared with 43% who expect a negative impact.
- 42% of small business owners expect that developments in technology that occur in the next 12-months will positively impact their business, compared with 13% who expect a negative impact.
Small Business Fast Facts
JPMorganChase 2025 Business Leaders Outlook (January 7, 2025)
Summary: While small business owners are bullish for 2025, workforce shortage challenges threaten to keep costs high.
- 66% of small business owners are predicting higher sales in 2025 and 67% expect higher profits in 2025.
- 64% are investing in increased sales by adding products (35%), increasing advertisement spend (34%), and increasing social media campaigns (31%).
- Nearly 80% of small business owners are either already implementing artificial intelligence (AI) or considering adopting AI this year.
- 60% of small business owners are optimistic about the local economy (up 3 points from the mid-year report) and 69% of small businesses are not expecting a recession in 2025.
- 40% of small business owners say they are facing labor shortage challenges, including recruiting and retaining quality employees.
- 47% plan on increasing wages to be competitive in the labor market. 40% are offering flexible working arrangements. And, 35% plan on increasing benefits such as healthcare, 401(k)s, and child care.
- 59% of small business owners view wages as their most significant cost driver and 56% have raised prices to try and offset increased costs.
MetLife & U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index for Q4 (December 16, 2024)
Summary: Concerns over regulatory costs escalated right before the election and small businesses’ negativity towards the national economy continued to shrink.
- 32% of small business owners are positive about the nation’s economic health (up 8 points since this time last year).
- 38% of small business owners are positive about the health of their local economy (no change from last quarter and up 8 points since this time last year).
- 55% of small business owners rank inflation as their top concern (1 point lower than last quarter and the 12th consecutive quarter where inflation tops the list).
- 67% of small businesses are confident in the health of their own business (1 point higher than last quarter) and 72% are comfortable with their current cash flow (4 points higher than last quarter).
- 22% of small businesses increased staff over the past year (no change from the last two quarters and tied with the highest level reached 2-years ago).
- 70% of small business owners view the last quarter as critically important for their overall profit.
- 51% of small business owners view regulatory compliance costs are a barrier for growth and 47% of small business owners believe they spend too much time fulfilling regulatory requirements.
- 69% of small business owners feel it is harder for them to comply with regulatory requirements than their larger business competitors.
- Tax compliance and recordkeeping both top the list of compliance burdens when asked about time spent complying with regulations (73%).
- While 89% of small business owners are confident in their knowledge of regulatory requirements, 77% report using Google for answers when confronted with tricky compliance questions.
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Thomas M. Sullivan
Thomas M. Sullivan is vice president of small business policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Working with chambers of commerce and the U.S. Chamber’s nationwide network, Sullivan harnesses the views of small businesses and translates that grassroots power into federal policies that bolster free enterprise and reward entrepreneurship. He runs the U.S.
